Background
:-
Chinese foreign policy and strategic thinking has for years
have been irredentist. Its territorial
claims on remote historical grounds have little place in modern international
relations and the necessity to build a world free from wars and tensions. Yet
these claims are alive and seriously affect India, Vietnam and erstwhile Soviet Union.
The militant and narrow nationalism that has dominated the thinking of large
sections of the Chinese leadership, has worsened due to China’s following moves
:
(a)
Open aid to the rebellion in Afghanistan and
Kampuchea.
(b)
Reluctance to back Sihanouk-Hun Sen talks.
(c)
Active support to the military regimes in
Islamabad and Bangkok for narrow strategic gains.
(d)
Attack on Vietnam and it’s active involvement
with Pol Pot’s social experiments.
(e)
Encouragement to the Thai military regime to be
its proxy in Indochina.
(f)
Reckless sale of arms in international arms
market, to feed the war torn regions in the world.
Considering such gaping
misadventures from the Chinese side, it is only prudent that the bigger power
tows the line of collective security arrangement (as under Helsinki agreement).
It is hoped that China
in its own interest and in the interest of peace in Asia would come round to
this view and refrain from a unilateral military based search for security and
strategic superiority.
Sino-Indian relations :-
India conquered and dominated China culturally for 20
centuries without ever having to send a single soldier across her border.
— Hu Shih (Consolation of Mind)
Sino-Indian relations
date back to the so called “OPIUM AGE” of china. Silk route was in extensive
use for mutual trade & cultural exchange even before those times. The
relations were healthy then and opined with mutual respect and benefit.
The modern relationship
began in 1950 when India was among the first countries to end formal ties with
the Republic of China (Taiwan) and recognize the PRC as the legitimate
government of Mainland China. Militant nationalism coupled with the internationalism
of Marxis-Leninist views (Ultra Leftism) was good enough a reason for PRC to
grab the whole of Tibet.
Thus the expeditionary
moves of Dragon began to create rift between the Sino-india relations.
Panchsheel & Bandung were brief interludes in this counter – current.
Post 1960 the cultural
Revolution and the Xenophobia o enhanced hostilities put a freeze on relations.
That was the phase of delinking in sino-india relations and warming of Pakistan
and Western nations.
Since then the relations
between contemporary China and India have been characterized by border
disputes, resulting in three military conflicts :-
(a)
Sino-Indian War of 1962.
(b)
Chola incident in 1967.
(c)
1987 Sino-Indian skirmish.
(d)
2017, the two countries clashed at the Doklam
plateau along the disputed Sino-Bhutanese border.
Real-politick
Crisis :-
Despite growing economic
and strategic ties, there are several hurdles for India and the PRC to overcome.
India faces trade imbalance heavily in favour of China. The two countries
failed to resolve their border dispute and Indian media outlets have repeatedly
reported Chinese military incursions into Indian territory.
There has been frequent Infringement on India’s sovereignty by pick
poking in the narrative of South Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh) and parts of Ladakh
(Aksai Chin is part of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region). Total summed
area would be 7500 sq. Km (approx). These are a part of the greater Salami
slicing strategy employed by our expansionist neighbor hood .
Both countries have
steadily established military infrastructure along border areas. Additionally,
India remains wary about China's strong strategic bilateral relations with Pakistan.
while China has expressed concerns about Indian military and economic
activities in the dispute due to South
China Sea.
Impact on India :-
China looms large in the
minds of India’s planners – owing to its large military budget, its
modernisation plans and the aggressive posturing in the South China Sea.
To begin with, there are four outlines that will shape India-China conflict:-
(a)
Territorial
defence postures of both countries-
India maintains its large body of
troops relatively close to the border while China stations a limited number in
its interior in Tibet.
(b)
Climate
and the difficult terrain –
Areas along the Indian side are not
amenable to mechanised warfare, except certain parts of Ladakh and Sikkim.” The
high elevation of Tibet gives China some “commanding advantages” for
surveillance, artillery operations and acclimatisation of troops to high
altitudes. High altitude and extreme cold affect “almost every element of
military equipment”; they complicate air campaigns and battle plans.
(c)
Infrastructure
disparity between the two sides –
The People’s Liberation Army has
rapid access to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) thanks to the terrain and
highways and high-speed railway networks it has built. whereas Indian troops
“often have to trek several hours, if not days, to attain certain areas.”
(d)
Different
command structures on both sides –
India has several regional army and air force
commands, whereas China has one unified western theatre command.
(e)
Cyber
war –
This fourth arm of war is most
critical in coming days. Its highly probable that the next war will be a full
conventional one and will be accompanied/ preceded by a shadow Cyber war. We need
to deal this separately in the later part of our discussions as it needs
multitude of factors to be roped in.
Above will have a bearing on the kind of war we need to prepare for. The
emphasis has to be on :
(a) Trans-theater
mobility.
(b) Rapid
massing of strength.
(c) Gaining
initiative from striking first.
(d) Fighting
a quick battle to force a quick solution.
In the event of a
conflict with India, conventional forces will be rushed in from the interior
and these will be accompanied by air, electronic and cyber operations. The
PLA’s air force (PLAAF) and artillery will conduct “standoff strikes” to
disrupt and delay the arrival of Indian forces coming from the lowlands. PLA’s
Special Operations Forces (SOFs) will be deployed to attack vital targets to
create favorable conditions for main force units.
Rapid development of
China’s airborne assault capabilities via the PLAAF’s 15th Airborne Corps,
numbering over 35,000 troops and headquartered at Xiaogan, from where it is
expected to reach any part of China within ten hours.
India’s strategy :-
It is thus clear that security
of India faces certain serious challenges. Considering the same our
preparations needs to be multifaceted garnered with matured Diplomatic and Military strategy.
The same has to be SMART (Simple/Measureable/Actionable/Review/Time based).
(a)
Military
strategy –
-
India has been building on its advantage in
conventional troops numbers augmenting its force structure with new battalions
of scouts, adding air, missile and surveillance assets,
-
Raising a new Mountain Strike Corps.
-
Improving its road and rail infrastructure in
the border regions.
-
Strategy of horizontal escalation and capture
territory elsewhere(in case of china seizing Indian territory. In line with
this, Ladakh and northern Sikkim are good locations for a mechanised riposte
where India’s forces would “sweep down from…mountain plains to conduct pincer
movements behind Chinese formations, with the hope of breaking troop
concentration.” India’s air and missile power would aid these mechanised incursions
into Tibet, as part of a wider theatre strategy.
-
set up a naval blockade and essentially strangle
Beijing’s economy. China would have to sortie the People’s Liberation Army Navy
into the Indian Ocean to break the blockade.
The above is the best way for adoption of a much more vigorous,
tactically offensive approach to territorial defence.
Limitations of our Military strategy -
India’s approach to conventional deterrence has certain limitations.
While we have moved toward adopting a more-offensive form of area denial, the
same is overtly dependent on conventional forces that could be overcome or
circumvented in the event of a fast-moving, localised, and limited border
confrontation launched from higher elevations.” This leads to several problems.
India is reliant on dispersed, poorly equipped paramilitary forces like the
Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) as “its first line of defence, in many of the forward areas most vulnerable
to Chinese aggression.” The nature of the topography is such that conventional
troops, which are substantially stationed in lower altitudes, are “relatively
static” – moving them from lowlands is challenging, and while they wind up
mountain roads and valleys during conflict they are vulnerable to artillery,
missile or air strikes.
These weaknesses can be addressed by :-
(a) Complementarity
between conventional forces and Special Operations Forces that can “play a
critical role behind enemy lines, conducting sabotage, reconnaissance, and
direct-action operations.”
(b) SOF’s can be used to strike airbases,
reconnaissance assets and disrupt build-up of PLA forces. SOFs are also useful
to counter “gray zone aggression”.
(c) Road
and rail projects in border areas needs to be sped up. “As of May 2016, only
twenty-one of sixty-one border road projects designated strategic had been
completed.” Twenty eight strategic railway lines were sanctioned in 2010, “six
years later none have been finalized.”
(d) Chronic shortfalls in essential equipment
needs to be addressed - including parachutes, night vision devices,
high-altitude clothing and even aluminium, belt-attachable water bottles.
It would be wise for India to keep a
tab on the latest Chinese doctrine of war. The same has spread to engulf
IT/cyber/space paradigms. Few of the latest arsenals that china has developed include
:
-
WU-14 Hypersonic Weapon system - India should rightly fear
Chinese hypersonic weapons because they are extremely fast and difficult to
shoot down. A hypersonic weapon launched from Xinjiang, western China and
traveling at Mach 7 could reach Bangalore in twenty minutes, and
Delhi in less than ten.
-
Future Chinese Carrier - While China already has one carrier as
part of its naval arsenal, the rebuilt Liaoning, this could be just the
start of things to come. Reports have it that they are into building a carrier
force. The construction of a future Chinese carrier fleet opens up the
possibility of a direct confrontation with India’s carrier fleet, in the first
carrier vs. carrier battle since the Second World War.
-
Second Artillery Corps – armed with short and medium range
Ballistic missiles, it can hit entire of India with accuracy of 100 mtrs,
terminally guiding them from a road in Tibet. Currently we do not have a
Missile defence shield in place (though work is on for the Israel SS400).
-
DH-10 Cruise Missile - Dong Hai-10, or “East Sea 10” cruise
missile family represents a breakthrough in Chinese cruise missile technology. India
should fear the DH-10--particularly the ground-launched version--because it
provides China with a standoff conventional precision attack capability.
India’s only defense would be to shoot incoming DH-10s down.
-
Chengdu J-20 Fighter – Chinese FGFA currently under development,
will be capable of carrying land attack
missiles, which could precede a strike by the Second Artillery Corps, taking
out Indian surface-to-air missile batteries, air bases, radar stations and
command and control targets. J-20 will use the stealth technology to evade
detection.
-
Heli - born army – this will help in placing the troops at a
short notice, within the entire horizontal tibetian plateau thereby being
battle ready in the front even before we can start the dwell.
India’s counter would be to build its Blue Navy
capabilities , considering that land based power show would end in a
stalemate(both terrain and the Land army capabilities are evenly matched). Quite
a good move has been taken on the same as follows (though progress is slow):
-
VIkramaditya
Aircraft Carrier -
China
fears Vikramaditya because the carrier could lead a blockade of Chinese
shipping, its aircraft increasing the Indian fleet’s radius of action.
Vikramaditya could also contribute offensive air power against any Chinese
fleet sortied to break the blockade.
-
Fifth
Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) -
India’s
first fifth generation fighter, FGFA is a collaboration between Hindustan
Aeronautics Limited and the Russian Sukhoi corporation. It will theoretically
give India an aircraft in the same class as the American F-22 and Chinese J-20.
China
fears the FGFA because it would directly compete with the Chinese J-20 fighter.
Despite the reported problems, the FGFA’s pedigree includes the legendary
Sukhoi aircraft design bureau, with more than 70 years experience in fighter
design. The J-20, by contrast, is apparently a wholly indigenous design with
little or no foreign expertise. If FGFA turns out to be successful, it will
allow India to match advances in Chinese airpower for the foreseeable future.
-
BrahMos
Anti-Ship Missile -
A joint Indian-Russian project, BrahMos is a
short-range supersonic cruise missile capable of being launched
from land, air, and both surface and subsurface ships. Brahmos is one of the
most advanced missiles in the world, capable of hitting targets on land and at
sea with precision.
Brahmos represents a substantial missile threat
to the People’s Liberation Army and People’s Liberation Army Navy. The
missile’s high speed means that China’s unproven air defenses—both on the
ground and at sea—will have mere seconds to respond to a Brahmos attack.
-
Kolkata-Class
Destroyer -
The Kolkata class is India’s latest guided
missile destroyer design. Fast and stealthy, with an advanced sensor suite and
an array of potent air, land and sea weapons, the Kolkata class would be a
formidable ship in any navy.
The Kolkata will pack the heaviest
surface-to-surface firepower of any destroyer in any navy, with each ship
carrying 16 BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles. Rounding out the ship’s
armament is a 76mm gun, four AK-630 close-in weapons systems, anti-submarine
rockets and torpedoes, and two embarked helicopters with a hangar.
China would fear the Kolkata class because it
would provide air defense for ships such as the Vikramaditya. Armed with 16
BrahMos missiles, the Kolkatas could also operate independently as commerce
raiders, threatening Chinese shipping.
-
Arihant-Class
Ballistic-Missile Submarine -
Although India has maintained a nuclear arsenal
for decades, it has lacked a credible second-strike counter value capability.
The ability to threaten enemy strategic assets and even cities, an insurance
policy against surprise nuclear attack. INS Arihant (“Destroyer of Enemies”) is
the first real step toward fixing that problem. India is only the sixth country
in the world to develop an undersea nuclear deterrent.
INS Arihant is India’s first ballistic missile
submarine, specifically designed to launch nuclear missiles. Arihant will carry
twelve K-15 short-range nuclear missiles or four K-4 intermediate
range nuclear missiles. K-15
missiles, with their 700-kilometer range.
Arihant is nearing sea trials. Three submarines
are reportedly planned.
(e) Investment in training capacity to cope with
expanded forces. Attrition levels are high, forces units have an officer
shortfall of 25-30%.
(f) Addressing
the challenges in organizational domain - restructuring around a Joint Special
Operations Command (JSOC) to harmonize the large number of SOFs.
(g) Address
inter-service rivalry and bring about greater strategic and doctrinal clarity.
(b)
Diplomatic
strategy –
-
China has been building up on the OBOR(One Belt
one Road) initiative. The master plan is to Link mid east/central asia and
Europe. The strategy is also linked with extending collateral loans to
economically deprived countries and then subsequent colonization of the
countries by strangulating them in a Debt trap (Hambantota port & SEZ in
Sri Lanka / the Maldives Naval base) . China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
is a part of the same.
Indian concern stems from the fact that the entire OBOR
initiative is more of a Diplomatic encirclement of India in both Land and sea.
-
China’s hyphenation of India with Pakistan on
the NSG membership.
-
Designation of JeM chief Masood Azhar as an
international terrorist has been stalled by china on more than one occasions.
-
Chinese veto to disallow India into the
permanent UNSC membership.
Indian Counter-strategy -
India’s approach has been quite far flung now, though it needs to be
more intensive :-
(h) India
is working on multiple fronts to work with all major SEAC to develop a
strategic partnership. This should keep at bay the Chinese plan of
aggrandizement. The same is reflected in the commercial BOT of Trincomalee port
& defence deals with Bangladesh. The latest MoU with Iranian Govt. to
operate the Chabahar port (as an alternate to Gwadar) & Daqum Port of Oman
coupled with Delaram rail network to connect the landlocked Afghanistan are
laudable steps in counter circling the Chinese ambitions on land and sea.
(i) In
expanding its global reach , india will have to counter china’s containment
strategy by working with Japan, USA, Singapore and Australia to realize the
safety of Indian Ocean. There has been scheduled naval exercises between the US
and Japanese navy with India to assert the same.
The chiefs of navy
of Japan, US, Australia and India sharing the stage at the recent Raisina
Dialogue in Delhi comes just a couple of months after the officials from these
countries met in Manila to revive the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue giving a
clear indication of the military aspect of the grouping which is being called
the Quad. The move
indicates India’s readiness to shed its past inhibitions about the militarization
of the grouping and willingness to take greater responsibility in the
Indo-Pacific region. The new NATO like
Asian alliance would also require a economic viability model rather than purely
Military.
The Indo-Japanese Africa Asia
Growth Corridor (AAGC) can be adopted by the Quad. The AAGC envisages to
enhance capacity and skills, quality infrastructure and institutional
connectivity, development and cooperation projects and people to people
partnership. India’s own one Belt & MIEC, initiative can be
connected with AAGC in order to reap financial benefit through trade &
commerce (not to drop out the relative advantages derived out of the SCO (Shanghai
Cooperation Organization.)
Indo-China trade is highest at $100
bn would also be a very strong deterrent for china’s aggressive moves.
(j) Other
than working on the Look East policy, India has been engaging the African
nations positively through the Mekong-India Economic Corridor. The same
connects Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania through Indian ports shoring Arabian
sea. The naval base at Seychelles is a major boost to such Indian overtures.
Latest in the basket has been the
famed – Engaging Africa: 54+1 initiative, that took off in 2015.
India’s active participation in the world prosperity and her stance of
being Nuclear non-proliferator coupled with it’s relations with major world
powerhouses, will help her to address the issue to cross border terrorism &
UNSC permanent seat.
Cyber warfare: India's Shadow
battle in the virtual world :-
Aptly called the fourth pillar of warfare of our times, Cyber
warfare is a subject of great criticality and hence calls for absolute &
segregated view. In our modern times 50% of the war would be fought on cyber
space.
India’s vulnerability to Chinese cyber attacks could be
judged from the fact that a colonel rank officer from People’s Liberation Army
informed that India’s cyber infrastructure to protect its stock-markets, power
supply, communications, traffic lights, train and airport communications is so
‘primitive’ that can be overwhelmed by the Chinese in less than six hours. So
if there is a second India-China War, India’s adversary does not need to send
troops to the trenches of the Himalayas but to ask its cyber warriors to
cripple India’s security infrastructure from their cool air-conditioned
computer rooms.
Govt. Departments that
have come under attack
|
|
Departments
|
Threat Level
|
PMO
|
Espionage/Black out following Powergrid failure/Crippling of
Transport system/Hacking of banks & Stock Exchanges/Sabotage of Elections
/ Propaganda & Political unrest.
|
MEA
|
|
ITBP
|
|
DRDO
|
|
India’s inertia to induct cyber security as an essential
element of national security and growth is tremblingly palpable. Cyber security
is less debated, sporadically written about, and rumoured at best in India.
Because of this apathy and despite India’s grand stature in the cyber world,
India is vulnerable to the cyber snarls of China and other countries.
With its archaic governmental architecture, India is still
in expansion mode with little time spared on digital security. One of the
significant reasons of India’s inertia is its lack of understanding and
appreciation of the gravity of cyber security. Added to that, despite being a
proclaimed land of young people, India’s age-old lamentation for its youth is
one of the vital stumbling blocks to adopting a strong cyber security policy.
For example, the Narendra Modi-government appointed expert group ‘to prepare a
roadmap on cyber security’ is comprised of aged professors and busy bureaucrats
who cannot keep pace with the speed, agility and thought of modern-day hackers.
China and all other countries’ cyber security, on the other hand, rest in the
hands of their young cyber experts.
Cyber LINGO
|
|
Black Hats
|
Terrorists who have mastered techniques used by conventional
cyber security.
|
White Hats
|
Hackers who commitcyber crimes for a fee. They are not motivated
by any cause and are vulnerable.
|
Freenet/GNUnet
|
Areas in cyberspace infested by Hackers to pursue illegal
activities.
|
India is nowhere in the cyber war that has engulfed the
globe. India’s response to such a critical situation is a timid National Cyber Security Policy
that the government circulated in 2013. There is no national overhaul of cyber
security and the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team, the statutory body to
look after cyber attacks, has little critical strength or capability. Its
endeavour to recruit young talent and meaningfully engage them is still to take
off. After the 2013 National Security Council note that exposed India’s cyber
security unpreparedness, the government decided to augment infrastructure and
hire more professionals. However, what is required is a strategic vision to
ensure stealth in India’s cyber security and a political conviction to plug
strategic vulnerabilities.
The National
Technical Research Organization has regularly been alerting successive
governments about the danger from Chinese cyber attacks. India cannot afford to
be passive and unresponsive because if it does not not act now, by the time a
sophisticated cyber-attack happens, it will probably be too late to defend
against it effectively.
Agencies Focused on Cyber
Offence/Defence
|
|
Agencies
|
Roles & Responsibilities
|
Govt. agencies like National Technical Research
Organization(under RAW), Defence Intelligence Agency.
|
National Security Adviser will oversee a Public-private tie up
to set up a cyber security archietecture
|
National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection centre -
Carved out of CERT-I, to protect assets in critical sectors such as Energy,
transport,Banking, telecom, Defence & Space.
|
Centre to have a Natioanl Cyber security Policy I Place ; socail
Networks to be monitored to track cyber terror
|
Indian Computer Emergency Response Team - Set up in 2004 as a
unit of IT department. It protects non critical assets. It is a nodal agency
for responding to computer security incidents.
|
Plan is to boost cyber security capabilities anticipating that
India will increasingly come under terror attacks.
|
India’s immediate requirement is to understand the impending
cyber security threat from China and build better network filters and early
warning devices and add new firewalls around computers that run the Indian
economy and regulate vital civil and military installations. But in any battle
the attackers are always embedded with all advantages from choosing the
battlefield to deciding the time of war to the choice of instrumentalities.
Poor defenders end up defending an attack that they even cannot imagine.
Bottom line :-
India’s
current challenge is to counter the mercurial rise of Chinese authority and
finally contain it on all fronts. China wants it to be seen as a Global power
and hence undermine Indian presence. Considering the modern world socialist
view, this may not be downplayed, till the time such moves remain within the
frame work of peaceful terms of advancement and not smeared with the historical
expansionist mind set.
If Dragon needs to be kept at Bay our entire
political structure must shrug off its stupor to think and act as one. To
employ a combination of Liberal Economic and security policies, based on
matured time bound planning and execution of Cold calculative strategies.
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