Plot :-
Considering the decadence of our times it deems imperative
to look into a new paradigm of security for our nation (here we must understand
that we are no more a nation state and hence the irks of regionalism needs to
be pervaded with Nationalism).
Since 1947 India has been engulfed in war (not to mention
here the drain out of Indian GDP from
24% to mere 2.5% post the British colonial era), which have had led to major
leakage of state exchequer. Just to provide a snapshot of the losses in order
to set Tempo right.
Cost
Reflection :-
The India-Pakistan conflict already squeezes out 3% of
India’s economic potential, according to an analysis done by the Mumbai-based
think-tank Strategic Foresight Group in 2004.
Though reliable data on disappearances and civilian
casualties is not available, it would be safe to assume that at least 100,000
families suffered direct human costs on account of the four wars between India
and Pakistan.
the two countries ended up spending more
than $3 billion in the short period of time due to confrontation and the
overarching possibility of a nuclear war.
Timelines
of
conflict
|
India
|
Pakistan
|
1948
|
1104
|
1500
|
1965
|
3264
|
3800
|
1971
|
3843
|
7900
|
1999
|
522
|
696
|
Pakistan spent Rs 424 billion in visible
and invisible payments to terror outfits and its own military
in the year 2004, which was about 10.6% of its GDP then, according to estimates
by the think-tank.
Effect on current Economy :-
·
Compared to the Kargil war in 1999 that cost an
estimated Rs 5,000 crore a week then, a war with Pakistan now will cost Rs
5,000 crore per day.
·
Even if the war lasts for a fortnight, it would
cost India at least Rs 2,50,000 crore.
·
An Indo-Pak war will raise India’s fiscal
deficit by 50 percent to about Rs 8 lakh crore.
The war will give a severe blow to the FDI/FII investment
and can bring down the value of rupee to Rs 100 to a US dollar.
The main set back would be the loss of Market and would also ruin the upward trend in FDI/ FII
investment, take a 50 percent hit on the bourses, put paid to our high tech
manufacturing ambitions and render bleak the chances of a revival in the near
term.
The above said in terms of the growth and prosperity of the
nation, there are intrinsic issues which looms large such as :-
(a)
Loss of face in case of blowing up of war
(considering china may get dragged into). Costs will rake up manifolds.
(b)
How the nation would take the war as? Considering
we have a majority of population still under BPL (not to mention the un-equitable
wealth distribution even in the middle class population).
(c)
Strategy to handle pakistan’s Nuclear ploy . Currently
major offensives are at bay due to this abstract rhetoric.
However the above
should not deter a nation from facing the most serious issue of our time head-on.
Few of the options on the table would be :
(a)
Ramp up India’s defense – much has not been
executed in terms of Infrastructure (roads/rail networks) other than the set of
Arms/ ammunitions & spy cameras etc.. irrespective of change in our
national leadership the basic requirements still remains unfulfilled.
The above would require humongous amount of
money.
(b)
Review allocation
of funds for defence armament needs – pegged at 3% the allocation was at 1.45%
of GDP (2017-18 budget) which is a mockery on the way the country looks at it’s
defence.
Arguments for a better allocation &
Budget structuring
We may contest the requirements as shopping
spree for our defence sectors, however the concerns such as Chinese interventions
in various sectors including our land & seas , the drop in majority of the
make in India campaigns & lackluster form of planning a well educated
defence budget.
In addition to the voids of NSS(national
security strategy) and CDR(comprehensive defence review), our pre-budgeting process also
needs an overhaul. In the present context, the three Services project their
demands to the HQ Integrated Staff (IDS), which forwards the compiled demand to
MoD. After some minor tinkering, MoD sends it to the Ministry of Finance. The
Finance Minister puts arbitrary cap on defence allocations, without considering
operational necessities.
China supports Pakistani radicals at the
UN, continues aggressive moves even after the Doklam standoff, and its state
media threatens. China can destabilize our northeast if India pressurizes
Pakistan in Kashmir. We need to address cumulative critical deficiencies of the
military, need for modernisation and adverse strategic fallout of a 'hollowed'
defence. In addition, operational requirements indicate why India needs annual
defence allocation of 3 percent of GDP.
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on
Defence has pointed out that meagre funds for the armed forces as a whole,
cannot be justified through standard answers like, 'The allocations made to the
Services are based upon the ceilings conveyed by the Ministry of
Finance'.
Hopefully, the government will keep this in
mind.
(c)
Ramp up its own ‘defensive offence’ programme - India can and must create mayhem in India’s
legally owned PoK / Gilgit-Baltistan.
We can also fan the revolt in
independence-seeking Balochistan till success is theirs. With these regions
breaking away as the ultimate objective, other regions, like NWFP, and Sindh,
are likely to join the revolt.
We can provide men, materials, training, diplomatic
and economic support in the long-term. We can use proxies, ‘non-state actors’,
specialized operatives, soldiers, commandos – all being mufti and with
‘plausible deniability’.
(d)
Army must be given a free hand – proper retaliation
to cross border firing & infiltration to be handled by army as per their
plan of action and severity determined by the war commanders. This must also
include use of heavy artillery whenever required (considering frontiers of
war).
This slow burn would also prevent China from
wading in, and blaming us for the privilege!
(e)
Stick to Diplomatic Route - Besides, our
diplomatic effort to isolate Pakistan as a terrorist state is working. Not only
is it under censure from America, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, but also
from Afghanistan and Bangladesh, in the SAARC.
More condemnation, perhaps even economic
sanctions, may well be on its way.
This diabolical joint plan is meant to be
decisive, but how can it be, when it is essentially a ‘war of a thousand cuts’,
in operation since the 1980s?
Conclusion
:-
Arguing that a war is the last
thing the sub-continent needs. “It is to be pointed out that Pakistan and India
are the only two nuclear-armed states who still have unresolved disputes.”
If India changes course, to stick, no matter how insolent
the provocation, to responding likewise, we can give tit-for-tat indefinitely and
even make some pre-emptive thrusts and parries.
Honour and blood will be served, while our economy keeps
chugging forward.
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